Weekly analysis archive
Analysis archive
This page keeps the weekly notes together so earlier editions can be read in the context in which they were written. It also points to Arya Kia’s research work and the official Sharif Energy Faculty archive for readers who want to go further back.
Weekly analyses
Every current and previous edition, with its brief, data, and sources
11 web editions have been published so far. The newest note appears first, while earlier editions remain available as they were written at the time for comparison and reference.
Gulf shut-ins rise as diesel policy opens a second relief channel.
From 2 to 9 October, December Brent rose 2.4% to $104.72/bbl and November WTI rose 0.8% to $91.85/bbl. Henry Hub gained 6.1% to $3.220/MMBtu; the TTF and JKM futures proxies gained 8.9% to €81.434/MWh and 1.1% to $25.980/MMBtu. Operator reports verify precautionary Gulf shut-ins. IEA acceleration and a new U.S. diesel authorization establish policy channels, while destination deliveries remain unverified.
G7 targets the diesel squeeze as crude exports recover.
The G7 announced a coordinated 100-million-barrel stock release on 2 October. Friday settlements were $102.25/bbl for December Brent and $91.11/bbl for November WTI. WTI fell 1.4% against the archived 25 September close. Henry Hub closed at $3.035/MMBtu, TTF at €74.760/MWh, and the JKM futures proxy at $25.705/MMBtu. Brent, Henry Hub, and TTF crossed rolls; their reference changes are not comparable weekly returns.
Restoration became observable, but normalization did not.
From 18 to 25 September, November Brent rose 0.4% while like-for-like November WTI fell 3.8%; the continuous front-month WTI comparison is not used because October expired during the week. Henry Hub rose 9.8%, while the disclosed TTF and zero-volume JKM futures proxies fell 9.4% and 6.2%. Saudi Arabia restarted its East–West pipeline at a reduced rate and Gulf loadings increased, but full capacity and normal Hormuz transit were not verified.
Oil priced a workaround; LNG priced the longer shortage.
Brent slipped 0.7% and WTI edged 0.2% higher from 11 to 18 September after an intraweek pipeline shock. Reports of a prospective partial restart and Saudi ship-to-ship transfers compressed oil's peak, while reported cargo cancellations indicated real disruption. Henry Hub gained 2.9%, TTF was effectively unchanged, and the zero-volume JKM futures proxy rose 10.5% as curtailed Qatari supply and LNG competition persisted.
Oil crossed $100 as two chokepoints converged. Friday's retreat kept diplomacy in the model.
Brent, WTI, Dutch TTF, and the JKM futures proxy rose from 4 to 11 September, while Henry Hub fell. Reported damage temporarily shut Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline, Houthi forces reached Perim at the Bab el-Mandeb entrance, and Hormuz traffic remained impaired. Oil retreated Friday after a report of possible temporary talks, showing that both physical disruption and changing expectations shaped the close.
Renewed strikes rebuilt the premium. Physical flows did not yet confirm a fresh loss.
Brent, WTI, Henry Hub, TTF, and the JKM futures proxy rose from 28 August to 4 September. Renewed U.S.–Iran attacks and impaired Hormuz traffic drove a sharp risk repricing, while the latest EIA balances showed a U.S. crude draw and a below-average gas-storage injection. Reuters reported no evidence yet that the new escalation materially reduced Middle East exports.
More oil moved. The risk premium fell—but did not disappear.
Brent and WTI fell from 21 to 28 August as Gulf exports recovered and markets assigned more weight to Hormuz mediation than to new sanctions. Henry Hub, TTF, and JKM still rose, reflecting late-summer heat, low European storage, and persistent LNG shipping exposure.
The market stopped pricing a short disruption.
All five benchmarks rose from 14 to 21 August as constrained Hormuz traffic, threatened sanctions, and tight European winter cover outweighed another U.S. crude build and abundant U.S. gas stocks.
Stalled talks rebuilt the premium. Inventories slowed the climb.
Oil and European gas rose as Hormuz negotiations stalled and vessel attacks continued. A large U.S. crude build and comfortable U.S. gas inventories capped the rally.
Diplomacy cut the premium, but physical risks remained unresolved.
All five benchmarks fell as markets priced a possible Hormuz reopening. Vessel attacks, low European storage, and tight petroleum products prevented a larger decline.
The risk premium eased, but the energy system remained constrained.
Oil and gas benchmarks declined from elevated levels while damaged infrastructure, shipping constraints, and regional inventory differences kept uncertainty high.
Arya Kia research reports
24 reports on energy policy, climate, and energy security
This section gathers selected reports and research notes from Arya Kia’s public ResearchGate bibliography. Journal articles are left out here so the collection remains focused on reports and analytical notes.
Arya Kia public ResearchGate bibliography ↗Carbon removal
Taking stock of carbon dioxide removal policy in emerging economies, focusing on Brazil, China, and India
Research record ↗Climate diplomacy
The First Week of COP30: An Analysis of Major Events Influencing the Future of Global Climate Policy
Research record ↗Climate scenarios
Climate stability, alternative scenarios, and the role of United Nations climate conferences
Research record ↗Critical minerals
Supplying critical raw materials for defense in Europe
Research record ↗Oil security
Assessing Oil Transit in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Pre- and Post-Iran–Israel War
Research record ↗Critical minerals
Copper, Emerging U.S. Tariffs, and Future Prospects
Research record ↗Energy policy
The Future of Canada’s Energy Sector After Justin Trudeau’s Resignation
Research record ↗Renewable security
Assessing the Potential of Offshore Wind Energy to Enhance Energy Security in Land- and Fuel-Constrained Countries: A Case Study of Japan
Research record ↗Critical minerals
The Strategic Role of Rare Earth Elements in Ukraine: Implications for the War from U.S. and Russian Perspectives
Research record ↗Battery supply chains
China’s Lithium-Ion Battery Export Strategy
Research record ↗Oil outlook
Oil: A New Emergence or a Deadly Decline
Research record ↗Sanctions
The Effects of Sanctions on Iran's Economic Development
Research record ↗Climate diplomacy
A Look at the 29th Conference of the Parties and Recommendations for Iran
Research record ↗Climate diplomacy
COP 29, Countries' Positions, and Its Future
Research record ↗Climate diplomacy
COP 29, Troika, and Recommendations for Iran
Research record ↗Regional energy
The Republic of Azerbaijan is on the Way to Becoming a Hub for the Distribution of Renewable Energies
Research record ↗Critical minerals
Big Competition in Small Elements
Research record ↗Climate policy
China and Climate Goals
Research record ↗Energy efficiency
Examining the State of the World on the Way to Achieving the Seventh Goal of Sustainable Development — Energy Efficiency
Research record ↗Oil governance
OPEC and Its Future
Research record ↗Electricity policy
Evolution of the Structure of the Electricity Industry in the World and in Iran
Research record ↗Critical minerals
Growing Demand for Rare Minerals in the Energy Transition
Research record ↗Climate diplomacy
COP 28
Research record ↗Natural gas
Producers and Consumers of Natural Gas
Research record ↗Official Sharif University archive
78 weekly reports preceding the digital edition
Each report keeps the Persian-calendar date shown in the faculty archive, with the Gregorian equivalent beside it simply to make the record easier to find and cite.
Sharif Energy Faculty source archive ↗Persian year 14059 reports+
Persian year 140445 reports+
Persian year 140324 reports+
The Sharif University collection currently contributes 86 weekly reports to this index, and the latest 11 also have full web editions here. Those web editions continue the same series rather than forming a separate archive. Gregorian dates beside older reports are simple conversions of the Persian dates shown by the university, added to make searching easier.